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发信人: Jobs (温少), 信区: WinNT
标 题: Microsoft: What Next?
发信站: BBS 荔园晨风站 (Thu May 11 09:26:21 2000), 转信
Microsoft: What Next?
by PAUL KRUGMAN
Baron Wilhelm von Gates was the lord of two castles, each commanding a
strategic bottleneck along the Rhine. From these castles he was able to
demand money from all the travelers who passed by. This made him
wealthy, but also much disliked. Eventually the Holy Roman Emperor was
persuaded to curb the robber baron's power; he split up the Gates
domain, giving one of the castles to the baron's nephew.
But the results of this breakup were not quite what the emperor's legal
department had promised. In fact, travelers complained that things had
gotten even worse. Not only did they now face the nuisance of dealing
with two different robber barons, but they said they were paying more
for each trip than they had before.
Herr von Gates himself had undoubtedly been humbled: even the combined
income of the baron and his nephew was less than that of the baron
alone before the breakup. But this diminished revenue was the result
not of lower tolls but of reduced business. Uncle and nephew blamed
each other, each charging that the other was being greedy and hence
discouraging river traffic altogether.
And both were right. Before the breakup, von Gates had an incentive to
exercise restraint in his extortion: better to keep the tolls low
enough that river commerce was not impeded. But once he had been forced
to give up the downstream castle, the baron knew that any restraint on
his part would simply give his nephew an opportunity to raise his own
demands -- and his nephew made the same calculation. So their combined
tolls became too high even for their own good (indeed, they were on the
wrong side of the Laffer curve, though barons didn't know about such
things).
In other words, whether or not the baron had in fact abused his power,
the ill-considered imperial response only made things worse, punishing
not just the baron but everyone else.
I won't try to push this parable (actually just a colorful version of a
standard textbook model) any further. But it is relevant. In the last
few days the Justice Department, outraged by the lack of contrition
among Microsoft executives, has apparently decided to seek a
"horizontal" breakup of the software company -- that is, to split it
into one company that sells the Windows operating system (the upstream
castle) and another that sells Microsoft Office and other applications
(the downstream castle). What the parable suggests is that such a
"remedy" is deeply problematic.
We're not talking about guilt or innocence here, just practicality:
even if you believe that Bill Gates has broken the law, you don't want
to impose a punishment that hurts the general public. And even strong
critics of Microsoft have worried that a horizontal breakup would have
a perverse effect: the now "naked" operating-system company would
abandon its traditional pricing restraint and use its still formidable
monopoly power to charge much more. And at the same time applications
software that now comes free would also start to carry hefty price
tags.
Of course, Microsoft could be not only broken up but also subject to
price controls. But the government seems unlikely to be willing to take
on that role.
Why doesn't the government instead imitate the breakup of AT&T, with a
"vertical" division of Microsoft that creates multiple sellers of
Windows (so-called "baby Bills")? The answer is that Microsoft is not
AT&T. Each baby Bell was left with a clearly defined piece of the
former company's business. By contrast, if several companies were given
the right to sell Windows, their competition would probably drive the
price of the operating system almost to nothing; this would amount to
an expropriation of intellectual property rights. Maybe you think that
Microsoft deserves that fate; but it is not a precedent to set lightly.
And we might also mention that precisely in order to avoid that kind of
profit-destroying competition, rival baby Bills would surely try to
differentiate their products, possibly leading to loss of the one
undisputed advantage of Microsoft's dominance: a uniform standard that
allows many kinds of software to interact freely.
Even if you believe that Bill Gates and associates deserve to be
punished, it's important to think these things through. Let's hope
we're not about to cut off our own noses to spite Microsoft's face.
--
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